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	<title>说一不二 &#187; 经济</title>
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		<title>从一道经济题目中看开来</title>
		<link>http://onespace.eu/2009/11/24/from-an-economic-question/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:04:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>说一不二</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[学问]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[经济]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[社会]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[一道经济问题看社会制度<table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" width="100%" style="clear: both;">
    
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://onespace.eu/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/image21.png" rel="lightbox[463]"><img style="border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; margin-left: 0px; border-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; border-right: 0px" title="image" src="http://onespace.eu/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/image_thumb21.png" border="0" alt="image" width="207" height="146" align="left" /></a> 前两天浏览我在Google reader中沉积很久的博客订阅，结果从哈佛大学某经济学教授的博客中发现一道很有趣的经济习题。到不是说题目多么精妙，多么高深，主要是这题目后面的一些引申意义可能更值得我们大家思考。不敢自己独占，遂拿出来跟大家共享。</p>
<p>这题目很长，很系统，从定义的探讨开始直到一些简单的计算，不过我在这里就把它整合简化一下，只留其中核心的两问。题目是这样的：</p>
<blockquote><p>有这么一个小镇，一共住着5名居民。这5位每天只干两件事：打渔和吃鱼。要是他们在养鱼塘工作的话，每天可以得到2条鱼。如果他们在镇外的小溪边钓鱼的话，他们得到的鱼的数量就是如下的公式：</p>
<p>X=6-N</p>
<p>这里的X就是每个在溪边钓鱼的居民得到的鱼的数量，而N则是在溪边钓鱼的居民数量。</p></blockquote>
<p>于是问题来了：</p>
<blockquote><p>1）如果镇子里面搞的是集权型的计划性经济，也就是要综合考虑并最大化鱼的产量并规定居民捕鱼地点，请问，这个镇子的产鱼量应该是多少？应该如何分配居民？</p>
<p>2）如果这个镇子里面突然来了一股自由风潮，于是自由派当政，他们说我们要让大家来决定自己是在鱼塘还是在小溪中捕鱼。如果是这样的情况，小镇的产鱼量应该如何变化？多少人会在小溪钓鱼？多少人会在鱼塘捕鱼？</p></blockquote>
<p>感兴趣的同志可以自己拿出纸笔稍微算算再点继续阅读往下看。</p>
<p><span id="more-463"></span></p>
<p>好，现在先给答案再扯淡。（由于那位哈佛教授只出题不解答，下面这些都是我个人的解答，如有误，请不吝赐教。）</p>
<p>第一题，有很多方法可以用，复杂正统的方法是列个产量的二次函数求个导数算极值，简单的直接推算就可。总之答案应该是14条鱼。安排两个人去小溪，剩下三人的在鱼塘可以达到最大化产出。</p>
<p>第二题，稍微有点花花肠子。最好的办法是从博弈的角度出发来思考。答案在动态平衡后我认为应该是10条鱼。4个人在小溪，1个人在鱼塘。只有这样才是一个稳定的平衡点。否则，就会发生居民在鱼塘和小溪间的移动。在平衡的情况下，每个人都有且只能有2条鱼，于是大家相安无事，其乐融融。</p>
<p>在自由精神主导下的自我调控，即使在达到稳定之后也永远无法超越计划经济的所达到的最优产出，并且在最初阶段产量会发生骤降（自由派上台第一天的情况应该是只能产出5条鱼）。而集权型的计划模式有着无法逾越的产出优势，但总是有那么一些人比其他的人得到更多的鱼，并且这些受益更多的人是由小镇直接委派的。</p>
<p>这不是现在一些社会形态的真实写照么？我们现在超英赶美，甩开印度的经济发展，可以说是受益于当下集权型的模式，最大化社会产出，从某种意义上讲是现阶段最佳选择。但问题也是明显的，社会分配严重不均，并且滋生出很多阴暗和腐败出来。从另外一个方面讲，更为自由环境下，会让社会分配趋于均衡和公平，但负面的问题就是，无形的手是无法最优社会产出的。</p>
<p>我想，在当今自由论盛行之时，唯自由论至上者是否可以少安毋躁，仔细想想得失。同理，唯集权论者（貌似所占比例不大），也同样应该有所反思吧。就好象那些个主义的定义都在逐渐模糊了一样，最终的解决方案应当是两者的相互结合才是。</p>
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		<slash:comments>30</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>一个有趣的经济学问题</title>
		<link>http://onespace.eu/2009/10/27/interesting-economic-question/</link>
		<comments>http://onespace.eu/2009/10/27/interesting-economic-question/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:02:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>说一不二</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[学问]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[经济]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[如何用经济语言回答下面的问题： 假设你现在是一个政策规划人员，而目前针对猪流感的疫苗数量是有限的。那么在考虑到经济环境和最大化整体效用的基础上，你将如何分配这些资源？ 1）你可以先给某些特殊群体注射疫苗，比如那些高危人群。 2）你可以高价卖给那些出价最高的出价人，然后把赚到钱最终转移到所有人的身上。 3）如果你选择了（1），你是否允许那些先的到疫苗的人转售他们手中的疫苗？ 不知道大家都准备如何选择？<table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" width="100%" style="clear: both;">
    
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>如何用经济语言回答下面的问题：</p>
<p>假设你现在是一个政策规划人员，而目前针对猪流感的疫苗数量是有限的。那么在考虑到经济环境和最大化整体效用的基础上，你将如何分配这些资源？</p>
<p>1）你可以先给某些特殊群体注射疫苗，比如那些高危人群。</p>
<p>2）你可以高价卖给那些出价最高的出价人，然后把赚到钱最终转移到所有人的身上。</p>
<p>3）如果你选择了（1），你是否允许那些先的到疫苗的人转售他们手中的疫苗？</p>
<p>不知道大家都准备如何选择？</p>
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